Why did Lula win?

"It is the economy, companheiro!": an empirical analysis of Lula’s re-election based on municipal data

André Carraro – UFPel
Ari Francisco de Araújo Junior- IBMEC/MG
Otávio Menezes Damé – UFPel
Leonardo Monteiro Monasterio – UFPel
Cláudio Djissey Shikida – IBMEC/MG

Comments are welcome! (a Portuguese version of the paper is available here).
UPDATE: The English version has been removed due to restrictions imposed by the journal that we submitted the paper. Sorry.